Chris Ford: Israeli invasion of Gaza would be a mistake

?Israel is preparing to invade Gaza. All the signs look pretty ominous.

Of course, Hamas have attacked Israel in the last six months or so but their attacks on Southern Israel have intensified in recent days following Israel's assassination of the movement's military chief, Ahmed Jabari.?

Israel signalled its intention to escalate the conflict by drawing out Hamas through its killing of Jabari.

However, Israel's planned invasion of Gaza won't work in the long-term.

Why?

While Israel might well succeed in getting Hamas to scale down its attacks, it won't stop them altogether. This is illustrated by the fact that its last invasion of Gaza nearly four years ago failed to completely halt Hamas' attacks against the Jewish state.

Israel's military and political strategy with the Palestinians is fostered around one idea - that the Palestinians will accept a peace deal dictated largely by Israel and its Western allies. In practical terms, a one-sided deal might well suit Israel but would it guarantee lasting peace between the two protagonists?

Most likely not. Even if peace were secured on Israel's terms tomorrow, the Palestinian masses would never accept it. This is because the Palestinian people have long known the reality of Israeli occupation - daily harrassment, constant checkpoints and the confiscation of Arab land for Jewish settlements.

Also, Israel has effectively narrowed the parameters of Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank by taking more land for Jewish settlements. This means that Palestinian towns under self-rule are separated by a growing number of illegal settlements. This policy is designed to entrench Israeli dominance over Palestine through an effective divide and rule strategy.

And, as for Gaza, it has endured years of an illegal Israeli blockade. This has deprived the area of all but the most vital humanitarian supplies. Furthermore, Gaza has become more economically and socially depressed as a result, meaning that there has been growing unemployment and underemployment in Gaza. No wonder, then, that the population still supports the Islamists of Hamas.

I realise, though, that the Israeli people are living in fear of Hamas rockets. However, I have seen a Facebook meme which contains the fact that 1200 Israeli bombs have struck Gaza in the last three days - compare this with Hamas firing of about 300 rockets into Israel (with many of those being destroyed by the American-funded Iron Dome self-defence system). Moreover, the death toll for Palestinians has been 40 so far, whereas, for Israelis it has been around three with many more injured on both sides.

Admittedly, I am going to be accused by pro-Israel supporters of being anti-Semitic. This is but a smear tactic deployed by pro-Israel supporters against those who question the tactics of the Israeli Government in its unjust dealings with the Palestinian people. I want to reiterate my support for the right of Israel to exist, however, I also believe that it's time for the Jewish state to acknowledge that the unilateral nature of its founding destabilised the region. Most ordinary Israelis. after all, feel that their country should exist in order to continue protecting them against the persecution and repression they have been subjected to for centuries.

However, sadly, the majority of Israelis also support their government in its harsh dealings with the Palestinian people. They just don't realise that if you invade another people's homeland (as happened in 1967) and if you continue to push them to the wall, then the conquered people will in turn rise up and create chaos for the occupying power. Israeli Jews, no doubt, should remember their own sad history of persecution and repression stretching back to Roman times when they themselves stood up to various occupying and persecuting powers.

That's why Israel should accede to Palestinian demands for a truly fair and just peace. They will have to surrender and swap more territory to create a truly united and territorially contiguous Palestine. Israel will have to respect the fact that an independent Palestine will need a functioning military in order to counterbalance Israel's dominance as well. It never ceases to amaze me that many Palestinians now accept Israel's existence. However, all Palestinians seem to get in return from Israel (including many ordinary Israelis who should know better) is a racist denial of their own right to exist as a nation and people, despite the Jewish state's official rhetoric about supporting an equal two state solution.

The only Palestinian state that many Israelis will accept is a weakened one. ?And that isn't realistically possible.

So, Israel will invade Gaza. They will go in boots and all. There will be intense house-to-house combat with thousands of Palestinian fighters and civilians killed. However, the Israeli military toll could be far higher than in 2009 for this reason. History has shown that Israeli public opinion (as much as American opinion) can't stomach more than a 100 or so combat deaths without a huge outcry. Hamas will be counting on this.

Therefore, I predict that Israel will score a phyrric victory in that they will militarily humble Hamas - but not for long. Inevitably, Hamas will win over many more supporters (as they did post-2009) meaning that they will re-arm and re-group.

Given this scenario, we will all be witness to another Israeli-Palestinian War very soon. This cycle will keep repeating itself until Israel wakes up to the fact that Palestinians want a genuinely fair and just peace deal. Only then can Israelis hope to live in peace alongside their Arab neighbours.

Until Israel wakes up to its mistakes, there will be more mistaken wars fought to no good end.

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Source: http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/chris-ford-israeli-invasion-gaza-would-be-mistake/1273/140875

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